Background: Postoperative management and survival of gastric cancer is mainly determined by pathologic TNM stage. However, gastric cancer is a heterogeneity group, and the survival is quite different even when they are in the same TNM stage. Moreover, TNM stage system does not grasp other important clinicopathologic factors to determine the survival. The aim of the present study is to propose and validate prognostic score based on age, tumor size, and grade.
Materials and methods: Patients diagnosed with gastric cancer in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 1988 to 2012 were included in the present study. Kaplan–Meier methods were adopted and multivariable Cox regression models were built for the analysis of long-term survival outcomes and risk factors.
Results: A total of 26,091 eligible patients diagnosed with noncardia gastric cancer were included in the study. In the univariate and multivariate survival analysis, age at diagnosis, tumor grade, and tumor size were validated as independent prognostic factors (P <0.05). Then, we proposed a prognostic score calculated from the number of risk factors, with 0, 1, and 2 points each given for favorable, intermediate, and poor prognostic categories of age (≤50, 50–70, and >70), grade (well, moderate, and poor differentiation), and size (≤3, 3–6, ≥7 cm). The prognostic score was verified as independent predictor in both univariate and multivariate survival analyses (P <0.001). In addition, nomograms on cause-specific survival were established according to prognostic factor and all other significant factors, and c-index was 0.715 (95% CI: 0.706–0.725).
Conclusion: Prognostic score based on age, tumor size, and grade is an independent predictor of survival after gastrectomy. The novel prognostic score can improve the accuracy of prediction for current TNM stage system. Patients who are with a high prognostic score should undergo extensive follow-up after surgery.
Keywords: gastric cancer, prognostic score, survival analysis