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Authors Bai L, Liu ZQ, Fang QW, Yan Q, Shi OM, Bao PP, Mu LN, Chen XD, Zhang TJ
Received 12 October 2017
Accepted for publication 15 January 2018
Published 9 March 2018 Volume 2018:10 Pages 277—288
DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/CLEP.S153951
Checked for plagiarism Yes
Review by Single-blind
Peer reviewers approved by Dr Colin Mak
Peer reviewer comments 2
Editor who approved publication: Professor Vera Ehrenstein
Background: In
2012, liver cancer ranked as the fifth and eighth most common cancer in men and
women, respectively, in urban Shanghai. This study aims to present the trend
and projection of age-specific incidence and mortality of liver cancer in
Shanghai.
Methods: We extracted data of liver cancer incident cases and deaths
between 1973 and 2012. An age–period–cohort model was used to analyze the data.
Results: A total of 47,344 men and 18,692 women were diagnosed with liver
cancer from 1973 to 2012. The overall age-standardized incidence was 26.89 and
8.89 per 100,000 for men and women, respectively. Correspondingly, a total of
44,355 and 18,084 men and women died from liver cancer during this period. The
overall age-standardized death rate was 25.34 per 100,000 in men and 9.39 per 100,000
in women. Between 1973 and 2012, liver cancer incidence and mortality in all
age groups, except people aged 0–19 years, experienced a significant decline.
Similar temporal patterns were detected in liver cancer mortality in both sexes
when compared with incidence. Liver cancer incidence and mortality are expected
to further decline among all age groups in 2013–2020 in both sexes, though the
numbers of incident cases will remain stable.
Conclusion: Incidence and mortality of liver cancer in urban Shanghai have decreased
by about 40% and 50%, respectively, over the past four decades. This decline is
expected to continue in the near future. However, the population is aging,
which is reflected in the increasing crude rates and decreasing age-adjusted rates.
Keywords: liver cancer, incidence, mortality, Shanghai