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已发表论文
预测脊柱结核术后延长住院时间的术前列线图开发与验证
Received 21 September 2025
Accepted for publication 14 January 2026
Published 20 January 2026 Volume 2026:19 564043
DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/IDR.S564043
Checked for plagiarism Yes
Review by Single anonymous peer review
Peer reviewer comments 3
Editor who approved publication: Dr Hazrat Bilal
Li Li,* Alimujiang Yusufu,* Yuan Ma
Spine Surgery Department, Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, People’s Republic of China
*These authors contributed equally to this work
Correspondence: Yuan Ma, Email traumatica@qq.com
Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine the risk factors that affect prolonged length of stay (LOS) after debridement, bone grafting, fusion and internal fixation for spinal tuberculosis, and to establish and validate a prediction model.
Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on 102 patients hospitalized for spinal tuberculosis at a single center from September 2017 to January 2024. Using the 75th percentile of length of stay as the cut-off value, a stay ≥ 13 days was defined as prolonged LOS. Univariate and binary logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors. A nomogram prediction model was developed and its performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve AUC with internal validation.
Results: The average length of stay was (10.63± 3.01) days, with 26 patients (25.5%) having prolonged length of stay. Binary Logistic regression showed that Emaciation (OR=6.598, 95% CI 1.264– 42.462, P=0.031), severe pain (OR=10.776, 95% CI 2.613– 56.910, P=0.002), elevated Erythrocyte sedimentation Rate (OR=1.091, 95% CI 1.025– 1.183, P=0.014) and elevated C-reactive protei (OR=1.076, 95% CI 1.027– 1.141, P=0.005) were independent risk factors. The AUC of the joint prediction model was 0.928 (95% CI: 0.878– 0.977), indicating good predictive value.
Conclusion: Emaciation, severe pain, elevated Erythrocyte sedimentation Rate and elevated C-reactive protein are independent risk factors for prolonged length of stay after surgery for spinal tuberculosis. The developed nomogram can assist clinicians in preoperative identification of high-risk patients and optimizing perioperative management strategies.
Keywords: spinal tuberculosis, length of stay, LOS, risk factors, predictive model
Spine Surgery Department, Sixth Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, People’s Republic of China
*These authors contributed equally to this work
Correspondence: Yuan Ma, Email traumatica@qq.com
Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine the risk factors that affect prolonged length of stay (LOS) after debridement, bone grafting, fusion and internal fixation for spinal tuberculosis, and to establish and validate a prediction model.
Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on 102 patients hospitalized for spinal tuberculosis at a single center from September 2017 to January 2024. Using the 75th percentile of length of stay as the cut-off value, a stay ≥ 13 days was defined as prolonged LOS. Univariate and binary logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors. A nomogram prediction model was developed and its performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve AUC with internal validation.
Results: The average length of stay was (10.63± 3.01) days, with 26 patients (25.5%) having prolonged length of stay. Binary Logistic regression showed that Emaciation (OR=6.598, 95% CI 1.264– 42.462, P=0.031), severe pain (OR=10.776, 95% CI 2.613– 56.910, P=0.002), elevated Erythrocyte sedimentation Rate (OR=1.091, 95% CI 1.025– 1.183, P=0.014) and elevated C-reactive protei (OR=1.076, 95% CI 1.027– 1.141, P=0.005) were independent risk factors. The AUC of the joint prediction model was 0.928 (95% CI: 0.878– 0.977), indicating good predictive value.
Conclusion: Emaciation, severe pain, elevated Erythrocyte sedimentation Rate and elevated C-reactive protein are independent risk factors for prolonged length of stay after surgery for spinal tuberculosis. The developed nomogram can assist clinicians in preoperative identification of high-risk patients and optimizing perioperative management strategies.
Keywords: spinal tuberculosis, length of stay, LOS, risk factors, predictive model