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已发表论文
基于牛磺胆酸、年龄和白蛋白预测CHB患者HBV相关肝硬化/HCC的列线图
Authors Zhang X, Zheng L, Zheng W, Shi J, Yu S, Liu H, Feng H , Yu Z
Received 7 September 2025
Accepted for publication 19 December 2025
Published 21 January 2026 Volume 2026:13 559937
DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/JHC.S559937
Checked for plagiarism Yes
Review by Single anonymous peer review
Peer reviewer comments 2
Editor who approved publication: Dr Ali Hosni
Xuemei Zhang,* Liming Zheng,* Wenlan Zheng, Jia Shi, Shihan Yu, Hao Liu, Hai Feng,* Zhuo Yu*
Department of Hepatopathy, Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai, 201203, People’s Republic of China
*These authors contributed equally to this work
Correspondence: Zhuo Yu, Department of Hepatopathy, Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, 528 Zhangheng Road, Pudong New Area, Shanghai, 201203, People’s Republic of China, Tel +86 21 20256507, Fax +86 21 20256699, Email zhuoyu@shutcm.edu.cn
Purpose: Progression to liver cirrhosis (LC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a severe epidemiological risk factor for chronic hepatitis B (CHB); therefore, effective monitoring strategies are urgently required. Dysregulation of bile acids (BAs) metabolism is crucial for aggravating the pathological processes of liver diseases. In this study, we aimed to develop a risk model based on the BAs signature to predict the likelihood of LC and HCC occurrence in CHB patients.
Patients and Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted using the clinical data of 609 patients diagnosed with CHB, HBV-related LC, and HCC. Patients were randomly assigned to a training or validation set. Logistic regression analyses were employed in the training set to identify key variables and establish a nomogram risk model for predicting the progression of CHB to LC and HCC. Accuracy, calibration, and clinical utility of the model were assessed using a validation set.
Results: Taurocholic acid level and age were independent risk factors, and serum albumin level was a protective factor against the progression of CHB to LC and HCC. A Nomogram risk model was developed using these three indicators, demonstrating a highly accurate and reliable ability to predict the progression from CHB to LC and HCC with good clinical validity and utility.
Conclusion: This study developed a nomogram incorporating BA markers, enabling precise prediction of LC and HCC in patients with CHB. This provided an accurate and accessible method for early screening and prevention.
Keywords: bile acids, chronic hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis, HCC, nomogram
Department of Hepatopathy, Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shanghai, 201203, People’s Republic of China
*These authors contributed equally to this work
Correspondence: Zhuo Yu, Department of Hepatopathy, Shuguang Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, 528 Zhangheng Road, Pudong New Area, Shanghai, 201203, People’s Republic of China, Tel +86 21 20256507, Fax +86 21 20256699, Email zhuoyu@shutcm.edu.cn
Purpose: Progression to liver cirrhosis (LC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a severe epidemiological risk factor for chronic hepatitis B (CHB); therefore, effective monitoring strategies are urgently required. Dysregulation of bile acids (BAs) metabolism is crucial for aggravating the pathological processes of liver diseases. In this study, we aimed to develop a risk model based on the BAs signature to predict the likelihood of LC and HCC occurrence in CHB patients.
Patients and Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted using the clinical data of 609 patients diagnosed with CHB, HBV-related LC, and HCC. Patients were randomly assigned to a training or validation set. Logistic regression analyses were employed in the training set to identify key variables and establish a nomogram risk model for predicting the progression of CHB to LC and HCC. Accuracy, calibration, and clinical utility of the model were assessed using a validation set.
Results: Taurocholic acid level and age were independent risk factors, and serum albumin level was a protective factor against the progression of CHB to LC and HCC. A Nomogram risk model was developed using these three indicators, demonstrating a highly accurate and reliable ability to predict the progression from CHB to LC and HCC with good clinical validity and utility.
Conclusion: This study developed a nomogram incorporating BA markers, enabling precise prediction of LC and HCC in patients with CHB. This provided an accurate and accessible method for early screening and prevention.
Keywords: bile acids, chronic hepatitis B, liver cirrhosis, HCC, nomogram