109229
论文已发表
注册即可获取德孚的最新动态
IF 收录期刊
- 3.4 Breast Cancer (Dove Med Press)
- 3.2 Clin Epidemiol
- 2.6 Cancer Manag Res
- 2.9 Infect Drug Resist
- 3.7 Clin Interv Aging
- 5.1 Drug Des Dev Ther
- 3.1 Int J Chronic Obstr
- 6.6 Int J Nanomed
- 2.6 Int J Women's Health
- 2.9 Neuropsych Dis Treat
- 2.8 OncoTargets Ther
- 2.0 Patient Prefer Adher
- 2.2 Ther Clin Risk Manag
- 2.5 J Pain Res
- 3.0 Diabet Metab Synd Ob
- 3.2 Psychol Res Behav Ma
- 3.4 Nat Sci Sleep
- 1.8 Pharmgenomics Pers Med
- 2.0 Risk Manag Healthc Policy
- 4.1 J Inflamm Res
- 2.0 Int J Gen Med
- 3.4 J Hepatocell Carcinoma
- 3.0 J Asthma Allergy
- 2.2 Clin Cosmet Investig Dermatol
- 2.4 J Multidiscip Healthc
已发表论文
老年髋部骨折术后急性心力衰竭的危险因素及诺模图预测模型的构建
Authors Zhang S, Sun D, Wang L , Guan L, Wu Y, Zhou L
Received 5 July 2025
Accepted for publication 28 October 2025
Published 5 November 2025 Volume 2025:20 Pages 1897—1912
DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/CIA.S551797
Checked for plagiarism Yes
Review by Single anonymous peer review
Peer reviewer comments 2
Editor who approved publication: Dr Maddalena Illario
Siyu Zhang, Dong Sun, Lingxiao Wang, Lijuan Guan, Yaoxuan Wu, Lihua Zhou
Department of Gerontology and Geriatrics, Geriatric Diseases Institute of Chengdu, Chengdu Fifth People’s Hospital (The Second Clinical Medical College, Affiliated Fifth People’s Hospital of Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine), Chengdu, Sichuan, 611137, People’s Republic of China
Correspondence: Lihua Zhou, Department of Gerontology and Geriatrics, Geriatric Diseases Institute of Chengdu, Chengdu Fifth People’s Hospital (The Second Clinical Medical College, Affiliated Fifth People’s Hospital of Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine), Chengdu, Sichuan, 611137, People’s Republic of China, Tel +86-18981917537, Email zhoulihuaf@163.com
Purpose: The frequency of acute heart failure (AHF) is relatively high in older adults undergoing hip fracture surgery. This study aims to explore the possible risk factors and create a nomogram predictive model for quantifying the level of risk.
Patients and Methods: This study retrospectively analyzed older adults who underwent hip fracture surgery at the Orthopaedic Department of Chengdu Fifth People’s Hospital affiliated with Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine between January 2022 and December 2023. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS 25.0 and R software to develop a nomogram prediction model. The model’s predictive precision was evaluated by examining the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) were also utilized to assess the model’s calibration and clinical utility comprehensively.
Results: This study underwent rigorous screening and ultimately included 313 patients. These samples were then divided into two groups in a 7:3 ratio, with 220 cases serving as the training set and 93 cases serving as the validation set. After performing univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis, we developed a nomogram based on the training set model, with an AUC of 0.861 (95% CI: 0.796– 0.925). In the validation set model, the AUC was 0.819 (95% CI: 0.692– 0.946). According to the calibration curve, the model shows a good fit. The DCA results suggest that the model holds significant practical value.
Conclusion: Statistical data indicates that the incidence of AHF post-operative in older adults with hip fractures reaches up to 15.34%. Multiple regression analysis revealed that age, cerebrovascular disease, cirrhosis, malnutrition, intraoperative blood loss, and hypoproteinemia are significant risk factors. Based on these findings, this study developed a nomogram prediction model to accurately assess the risk of AHF following surgery in older adults with hip fractures.
Keywords: acute heart failure, hip fracture, older adults, risk factors, nomogram
Department of Gerontology and Geriatrics, Geriatric Diseases Institute of Chengdu, Chengdu Fifth People’s Hospital (The Second Clinical Medical College, Affiliated Fifth People’s Hospital of Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine), Chengdu, Sichuan, 611137, People’s Republic of China
Correspondence: Lihua Zhou, Department of Gerontology and Geriatrics, Geriatric Diseases Institute of Chengdu, Chengdu Fifth People’s Hospital (The Second Clinical Medical College, Affiliated Fifth People’s Hospital of Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine), Chengdu, Sichuan, 611137, People’s Republic of China, Tel +86-18981917537, Email zhoulihuaf@163.com
Purpose: The frequency of acute heart failure (AHF) is relatively high in older adults undergoing hip fracture surgery. This study aims to explore the possible risk factors and create a nomogram predictive model for quantifying the level of risk.
Patients and Methods: This study retrospectively analyzed older adults who underwent hip fracture surgery at the Orthopaedic Department of Chengdu Fifth People’s Hospital affiliated with Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine between January 2022 and December 2023. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS 25.0 and R software to develop a nomogram prediction model. The model’s predictive precision was evaluated by examining the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) were also utilized to assess the model’s calibration and clinical utility comprehensively.
Results: This study underwent rigorous screening and ultimately included 313 patients. These samples were then divided into two groups in a 7:3 ratio, with 220 cases serving as the training set and 93 cases serving as the validation set. After performing univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis, we developed a nomogram based on the training set model, with an AUC of 0.861 (95% CI: 0.796– 0.925). In the validation set model, the AUC was 0.819 (95% CI: 0.692– 0.946). According to the calibration curve, the model shows a good fit. The DCA results suggest that the model holds significant practical value.
Conclusion: Statistical data indicates that the incidence of AHF post-operative in older adults with hip fractures reaches up to 15.34%. Multiple regression analysis revealed that age, cerebrovascular disease, cirrhosis, malnutrition, intraoperative blood loss, and hypoproteinemia are significant risk factors. Based on these findings, this study developed a nomogram prediction model to accurately assess the risk of AHF following surgery in older adults with hip fractures.
Keywords: acute heart failure, hip fracture, older adults, risk factors, nomogram