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已发表论文
中国育龄女性炎症性肠病疾病负担的分析与预测研究
Authors Xie C, Shi S, Li X, Guo S , Xiao J , Xie H , Cai S
Received 3 July 2025
Accepted for publication 30 September 2025
Published 11 October 2025 Volume 2025:17 Pages 3655—3666
DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/IJWH.S551379
Checked for plagiarism Yes
Review by Single anonymous peer review
Peer reviewer comments 2
Editor who approved publication: Dr Everett Magann
Chunying Xie,1 Siqi Shi,1 Xiaoyun Li,1 Shimin Guo,1 Jingjing Xiao,2 Huihui Xie,3 Shu Cai1
1School of Nursing, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, 510310, People’s Republic of China; 2Guangdong Women and Children Hospital, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, 511442, People’s Republic of China; 3Shenzhen Luohu Maternal and Child Health Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, 518000, People’s Republic of China
Correspondence: Shu Cai, School of Nursing, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, 510310, People’s Republic of China, Email Caishu_keyan@163.com
Purpose: To analyze the disease burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) among Chinese women of reproductive age (WRA) from 1990 to 2021, as well as the projected trends through 2035.
Patients and Methods: A segmented regression analysis was carried out to assess the temporal trend of the disease burden. Additionally, the age period cohort (APC) model was applied to explore the impact of each factor on IBD. Based on the APC model, a Bayesian approach was used to predict the disease burden during the period from 2022 to 2035.
Results: In 2021, the number of Chinese WRA with IBD was approximately 38,701, with a standardized prevalence rate of 9.47 per 100,000, both of which were lower than the global averages. From 1990 to 2021, the standardized prevalence rate of IBD among Chinese WRA showed an upward trend with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 1.53%, while the standardized DALY rate of IBD showed a downward trend with an AAPC of − 3.36%. The APC model showed that the longitudinal age curves of IBD prevalence and DALY rate increased with age. Over time, the risk of IBD among Chinese WRA showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, while the risk of DALY showed an overall downward trend with the passage of time. Results regarding birth cohorts indicated that the risk of IBD among Chinese WRA gradually increased with the advancement in birth cohorts, whereas the risk of DALY gradually decreased.
Conclusion: Age, period, and birth cohort have significant impacts on the disease burden of IBD among WRA. Going forward, it remains necessary to strengthen attention to the population of WRA with IBD and formulate appropriate health measures and strategies to prevent and manage the prevalence of IBD among WRA.
Keywords: women of reproductive age, inflammatory bowel disease, burden of disease, segmented regression model, age-period-cohort model
1School of Nursing, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, 510310, People’s Republic of China; 2Guangdong Women and Children Hospital, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, 511442, People’s Republic of China; 3Shenzhen Luohu Maternal and Child Health Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, 518000, People’s Republic of China
Correspondence: Shu Cai, School of Nursing, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, 510310, People’s Republic of China, Email Caishu_keyan@163.com
Purpose: To analyze the disease burden of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) among Chinese women of reproductive age (WRA) from 1990 to 2021, as well as the projected trends through 2035.
Patients and Methods: A segmented regression analysis was carried out to assess the temporal trend of the disease burden. Additionally, the age period cohort (APC) model was applied to explore the impact of each factor on IBD. Based on the APC model, a Bayesian approach was used to predict the disease burden during the period from 2022 to 2035.
Results: In 2021, the number of Chinese WRA with IBD was approximately 38,701, with a standardized prevalence rate of 9.47 per 100,000, both of which were lower than the global averages. From 1990 to 2021, the standardized prevalence rate of IBD among Chinese WRA showed an upward trend with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 1.53%, while the standardized DALY rate of IBD showed a downward trend with an AAPC of − 3.36%. The APC model showed that the longitudinal age curves of IBD prevalence and DALY rate increased with age. Over time, the risk of IBD among Chinese WRA showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing, while the risk of DALY showed an overall downward trend with the passage of time. Results regarding birth cohorts indicated that the risk of IBD among Chinese WRA gradually increased with the advancement in birth cohorts, whereas the risk of DALY gradually decreased.
Conclusion: Age, period, and birth cohort have significant impacts on the disease burden of IBD among WRA. Going forward, it remains necessary to strengthen attention to the population of WRA with IBD and formulate appropriate health measures and strategies to prevent and manage the prevalence of IBD among WRA.
Keywords: women of reproductive age, inflammatory bowel disease, burden of disease, segmented regression model, age-period-cohort model