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已发表论文
中国职业工效学因素所致腰背痛疾病负担的现状、趋势及预测分析
Authors Yang X , Li R, Shu J, Chen H
Received 23 April 2025
Accepted for publication 12 August 2025
Published 16 October 2025 Volume 2025:18 Pages 5493—5506
DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/JPR.S536096
Checked for plagiarism Yes
Review by Single anonymous peer review
Peer reviewer comments 2
Editor who approved publication: Dr Alaa Abd-Elsayed
Xueneng Yang,1 Ruijuan Li,2 Jun Shu,1 Hanbo Chen1
1Department of Traumatic Orthopedics, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming, Yunnan, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Burn, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming, Yunnan, People’s Republic of China
Correspondence: Hanbo Chen, Email 24925188@qq.com
Objective: With the acceleration of population aging and industrial structural transformation in China, LBP related to occupational ergonomic factors has become an increasingly serious public health issue. This study aims to assess the disease burden of LBP caused by occupational ergonomic factors in China, reveal its long-term trends, key driving factors, and future changes, fill existing research gaps, and provide scientific evidence for optimizing occupational health policies and intervention strategies for high-risk populations.
Methods: Data on Years Lived with Disability (YLDs), YLD rates, and age-standardized YLD rates for occupational ergonomics-related LBP from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze temporal trends. Age-period-cohort (APC) models assessed the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort. Decomposition analysis quantified contributions from population aging, epidemiological shifts, and growth. Bayesian APC (BAPC) models projected disease burden trends through 2040.
Results: In 2021, China had 3.314 million YLDs from occupational ergonomics-related LBP, with a crude YLD rate of 232.9/100,000 and an age-standardized rate of 178.4/100,000. Women and individuals aged 50– 54 bore higher burdens. From 1990 to 2021, total YLDs slightly increased, but YLD rate and age-standardized rate declined annually by 0.3% and 1.5%, respectively. APC modeling revealed significant period and cohort effects. Decomposition analysis identified epidemiological changes as the primary driver of burden shifts. Projections indicate that by 2040, age-standardized YLD rates will fall to 194.3/100,000, but total YLDs will rise among people aged 60+, reflecting aging and cumulative occupational exposure.
Conclusion: Occupational ergonomic-related LBP remains a significant burden in China, especially among older and high-risk workers. Although the per capita burden is decreasing, demographic shifts and work-related exposures will sustain overall burden. Comprehensive ergonomic interventions and targeted prevention for high-risk groups are essential for improving occupational health and guiding policy development.
Keywords: occupational ergonomic factors, LBP, disease burden, age-period-cohort model, trend prediction
1Department of Traumatic Orthopedics, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming, Yunnan, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Burn, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University, Kunming, Yunnan, People’s Republic of China
Correspondence: Hanbo Chen, Email 24925188@qq.com
Objective: With the acceleration of population aging and industrial structural transformation in China, LBP related to occupational ergonomic factors has become an increasingly serious public health issue. This study aims to assess the disease burden of LBP caused by occupational ergonomic factors in China, reveal its long-term trends, key driving factors, and future changes, fill existing research gaps, and provide scientific evidence for optimizing occupational health policies and intervention strategies for high-risk populations.
Methods: Data on Years Lived with Disability (YLDs), YLD rates, and age-standardized YLD rates for occupational ergonomics-related LBP from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze temporal trends. Age-period-cohort (APC) models assessed the effects of age, time period, and birth cohort. Decomposition analysis quantified contributions from population aging, epidemiological shifts, and growth. Bayesian APC (BAPC) models projected disease burden trends through 2040.
Results: In 2021, China had 3.314 million YLDs from occupational ergonomics-related LBP, with a crude YLD rate of 232.9/100,000 and an age-standardized rate of 178.4/100,000. Women and individuals aged 50– 54 bore higher burdens. From 1990 to 2021, total YLDs slightly increased, but YLD rate and age-standardized rate declined annually by 0.3% and 1.5%, respectively. APC modeling revealed significant period and cohort effects. Decomposition analysis identified epidemiological changes as the primary driver of burden shifts. Projections indicate that by 2040, age-standardized YLD rates will fall to 194.3/100,000, but total YLDs will rise among people aged 60+, reflecting aging and cumulative occupational exposure.
Conclusion: Occupational ergonomic-related LBP remains a significant burden in China, especially among older and high-risk workers. Although the per capita burden is decreasing, demographic shifts and work-related exposures will sustain overall burden. Comprehensive ergonomic interventions and targeted prevention for high-risk groups are essential for improving occupational health and guiding policy development.
Keywords: occupational ergonomic factors, LBP, disease burden, age-period-cohort model, trend prediction