已发表论文

青年高血压患者血压昼夜节律异常风险预测模型的建立与评估

 

Authors Chen Q , Shi L, Li X, Wen J, Geng G, Jiang J, Yu H, Quan M

Received 6 July 2025

Accepted for publication 2 October 2025

Published 17 October 2025 Volume 2025:18 Pages 6301—6313

DOI https://doi.org/10.2147/IJGM.S551845

Checked for plagiarism Yes

Review by Single anonymous peer review

Peer reviewer comments 2

Editor who approved publication: Dr Redoy Ranjan

Qinhao Chen,1 Lei Shi,2 Xiang Li,1 Jing Wen,1 Guangan Geng,1 Jinliang Jiang,1 Haiyang Yu,3 Mingzhu Quan1 

1Department of Electrocardiogram, 901st Hospital of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Joint Logistics Support Force, Hefei, Anhui Province, People’s Republic of China; 2The First Affiliated Clinical Medical College of Anhui University of Chinese Medicine, Hefei, Anhui Province, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Clinical Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of USTC, Hefei, Anhui Province, People’s Republic of China

Correspondence: Mingzhu Quan, Department of Electrocardiogram, 901st Hospital of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Joint Logistics Support Force, Hefei, Anhui Province, People’s Republic of China, Tel +8613349198759, Email 313477280@qq.com

Objective: This study aimed to develop and validate a simple and clinically applicable nomogram to predict abnormal circadian blood pressure rhythm in young hypertensive patients, enabling early detection and intervention.
Methods: A total of 211 young hypertensive patients were enrolled between January 2023 and June 2024, with an additional 203 patients from other hospitals included for external validation. Patients were categorized into dipper and non-dipper groups based on 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure monitoring. Independent risk factors for abnormal circadian blood pressure rhythms were identified using multivariate logistic regression analysis, which was subsequently used to construct and externally validate a nomogram model.
Results: Univariate analysis revealed significant differences (P< 0.05) in the lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR), systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI), systemic immune-inflammatory index (SII), triglycerides (TG), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), and uric acid (UA) between the dipper and non-dipper groups. Multivariate analysis identified decreased LMR, increased SIRI, elevated TG, and elevated UA as independent risk factors for abnormal circadian blood pressure rhythms in young hypertensive patients. The risk nomogram model was established based on the variables filtered by the multi-factor Logistic regression model. The evaluation results showed that the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.883. External validation showed an AUC of 0.844, with calibration confirming excellent predictive performance.
Conclusion: LMR, SIRI, TG, and UA are independent predictors of abnormal circadian blood pressure rhythms in young hypertensive patients. The developed nomogram model is straightforward, rapid, and exhibits clinically relevant accuracy, providing valuable insights for clinical application.

Keywords: hypertension, systemic immune response index, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio, circadian rhythm of blood pressure, nomogram